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Can Waterford shoot for the stars again this week?

A Statistical review:

 

Much has been said in the wake of last Sunday’s nail biting encounter between Waterford and Kilkenny. In the immediate aftermath of the game, a great deal of the commentary suggested that Waterford had lost their chance of dethroning the kingpins.  Letting a 4 point lead slip in the final 10 minutes against a team of Kilkenny’s calibre is lamentable to put it mildly. The disappointment etched on the faces of the Waterford players afterwards suggested they had similar emotions.
 

When the dust began to settle however and deeper analysis was conducted, many examples of how Kilkenny were lucky to be even in the game came to the fore.  The ferocity with which this young Waterford style hurled was exceptional and if they were to bring a similar intensity to their game in Thurles tomorrow night, then Kilkenny could well be in for another very difficult night.
 

Given these two different trains of thought, we set about analysing some game statistics to garner some insight. In the drawn game, Waterford created 38 scoring chances converting 24 of these (63%). Kilkenny created 33 scoring chances and converted 22 (67%). You may wonder where I am going with this discussion, but if we review these numbers in the context of the wider season a number of things become apparent.
 

Firstly, Waterford created 38 chances just under their average of 39 per Championship game this season. Waterford’s conversion rate of 63% last weekend was significantly above their season average of just under 52%. In the first half alone, Waterford converted a phenomenal 13 from 17 chances returning a staggering 76% conversion rate. The 2nd half saw their shooting regress towards the season average with 11 points coming from 21 opportunities equating to a shooting efficiency of 52%.

Chart 1:     Waterford Shooting Efficiency (2016 SHC)
 

Kilkenny on the other hand created 33 scoring chances, significantly less than their average of 41 per Championship game this season. This is due in part to the ferociousness of the Waterford tackling, but can such intensity be replicated again? Kilkenny also converted 12 of 17 first half chances (71%) and 10 from 16 second half chances (63%). Over the course of the game, this was very close to the Team’s season average of 62%.

Chart 2:     Kilkenny Shooting Efficiency (2016 SHC)
 

Based on shooting analysis in isolation, Waterford need one or both of the following to happen tomorrow evening in Thurles to record their first Championship win over Kilkenny since the 1959 All Ireland final replay:

  • Limit Kilkenny’s scoring chances to 33 or less again

  • Equal or better their own shooting efficiency of 63% from last week
     

So can Waterford shoot for the stars again this week, or will they regress towards the season averages? It may well be a bridge too far for this Waterford team tomorrow night based on the statistics, but then again statistics never put scores on the board!

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